000 AXNT20 KNHC 040550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 04N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N12W TO 03N16W TO 03N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 15W-22W...AND FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING AS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 27N82W TO 24N86W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N93W AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE HAVING AN EFFECT ON MOVING THE FRONT OUT OF THE REGION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT...AND A THETA-E GRADIENT STILL EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH AXIS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IS PROVIDING FOR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS S OF 22N WEST OF THE FRONT. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO EXPIRE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED THIS EVENING BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 18N73W THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. AT THE SURFACE... TRADES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 65W-82W THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES QUICK-MOVING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-20N W OF 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 55W ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE THEN EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 30N TO BEYOND 50W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N67W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N76W BECOMING A COLD FRONT TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 180 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N58W THAT ALSO EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ALONG 30N BETWEEN 45W-62W AND CONTINUES TO LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC ENERGY. FINALLY...OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N20W TO A BASE NEAR 08N36W THAT SUPPORTS A 480 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 05N30W TO 19N16W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN