000
AXNT20 KNHC 310531
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N9W TO 
4N11W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
4N11W TO 4N20W TO 2N40W TO 3N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 17W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE NEAR 36N86W. 
15-20 KT E WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 
27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER S TEXAS WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO  
THE N COAST OF BELIZE AT 18N87W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF ANY 
PRECIPITATION. 20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER MOST 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA NEAR 
21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N46W TO 
20N47W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N20W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 22N40W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N31W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N44W TO N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N66W WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA