000 AXNT20 KNHC 281155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N27W 4N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-32W AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE DESERT SW INTO NW MEXICO FURTHER AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO A 1008 MB LOW JUST E OF CORPUS CHRISTI CONTINUING S TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 89W. REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS THIS MORNING REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY TONIGHT FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AND TO OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO SUN THEN SHIFT E TO THE ATLC MON ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W GULF BY LATE MON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 68W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN SANTA CLARA AND COLON INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 83W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 81W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NW ATLC IS NOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W ALONG 27N68W TO 25N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN SANTA CLARA AND COLON WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE TROPICS TO 10N45W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N37W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N40W TO 24N44W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 24N38W TO 20N42W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 35W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N38W TO 31N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 15N W OF 25W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATES TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E THROUGH SAT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR 32N67W TO W CUBA SUN MORNING THEN FROM NEAR 32N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE WEAKENING TO A SHEARLINE BY MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT THEN MOVE ESE BY LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW