000 AXNT20 KNHC 251145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N22W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 14W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 57W-61W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST TO OVER THE E CONUS ALONG 85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF TO 27N84W. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING E ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE AREA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N88W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH NW GULF LATER TODAY AND EXTEND FROM THE SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING AND DISSIPATE ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ALONG 12N78W TO 17N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N760 TO 11N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 63W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE LATE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG 30N WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF SE CONUS NOW ALONG 74W N OF 29N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 30N75W TO BEYOND 32N71W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N50W ALONG 27N56W TO NEAR 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT TO THE COAST OF AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N26W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MOROCCO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE E ALONG 31N. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA WED EVENING FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU EVENING AND FROM 32N62W TO 22N77W FRI EVENING AS A DISSIPATING FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW