000 AXNT20 KNHC 241140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N25W 3N30W 3N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 16W-30W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-6W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-37W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 37W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 53W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST TO OVER THE E CONUS NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA GIVING THE GULF NW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE TO 24N95W. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE N GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF 84W TO TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY THEN STALL AND MOVE N. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE EVENING AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W TO NEAR 18N74W. NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W LEAVING THAT AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 70W THROUGH TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N58W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N61W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N68W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 450 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W NARROWING ALONG 20N23W TO 12N32W SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N17W TO 28N24W THEN DISSIPATING TO 25N30W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT WILL MOVE E ALONG 30N. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED EVENING AND FROM 32N63W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW