000 AXNT20 KNHC 231802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N14W TO 6N17W 4N30W AND 3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N IN GUYANA TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO ALONG 100W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 100W MEXICO RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT ALREADY HAS MOVED THROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 21N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N69W 12N76W...AND TO COASTAL PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BEYOND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 20N65W...TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 15N70W 11N78W...TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 81W/82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N68W 13N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N70W. THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC FOR CURACAO...ACCORDING TO THE BULLETIN...MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.77 OF AN INCH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 71W. OTHER BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 18N68W 16N75W 15N83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN WESTERN COASTAL PANAMA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 18N68W 16N75W 15N83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS...TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N55W 23N66W AND 23N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N61W 23N58W 27N52W BEYOND 32N45W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 26N46W 30N43W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N76W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N48W 23N76W COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N29W 21N33W 14N35W AND 9N38W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 31N24W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W AND 26N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W... ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N25W AND 19N36W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE 31N58W 20N70W COLD FRONT...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 75W TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT AND ELSEWHERE TO 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT