000 AXNT20 KNHC 220544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING ALONG 6N21W 4N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 16W-26W...FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-44W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 92W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS CLEARED THE GULF. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO BY WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 19N83W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. HOWEVER... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-69W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT THEN DISSIPATE SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 67W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 27N71W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA CAMAGUEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD E INTO THE W ATLC. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N64W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 33W-50W SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W CONTINUING ALONG 24N42W TO 19N52W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N34W ALONG 22N40W TO 16N48W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THE ABOVE FEATURES EXTENDING THROUGH 32N39W TO 26N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO E CUBA BY SAT MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW