000 AXNT20 KNHC 101805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 5N18W 6N30W 5N36W 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 29W AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND WESTWARD TO 30N107W IN NORTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N91W AT THE LOUISIANA COAST TO 23N98W AT THE MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N92W IN LOUISIANA TO 26N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WIND AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...FROM 22N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 96W. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N91W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF 84W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 73W AND 84W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...TOWARD THE GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN EASTERN HONDURAS...NORTHERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N84W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N46W TO 30N64W 29N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N91W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG HAS BEEN OCCURRING PERIODICALLY FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALSO IS IN THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS SITUATION INCLUDES 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...STARTING AS AN INITIAL CONDITION. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 81W FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N31W 22N43W... TO 16N53W AND 14N58W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS NEAR 31N27W TO 26N30W AND 22N32W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N32W TO 18N40W 15N46W 13N54W AND 12N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N52W 11N55W 8N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 62W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N46W TO 30N64W 29N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N91W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W...ABOUT 95 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 6N26W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 62W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W...EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY SWELL TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT