000 AXNT20 KNHC 081138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N10W TO 5N14W 5N30W 6N38W TO 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... TO 26N89W TO 18N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS PUSHING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 13N TO 20N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. PART OF THE 70W ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND ITS BORDER WITH COSTA RICA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 32N TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 24N64W 20N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL- TO-EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 27N50W 27N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N50W 26N60W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITH TIME...AND THE WIND FLOW IS TENDING TO MOVE TOWARD THE THIRD TROUGH...WHICH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE THIRD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N30W TO 16N32W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N30W 20N37W AND 16N41W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N32W BEYOND 32N26W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N49W 13N50W 10N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N17W...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N22W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH RESPECT TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N40W TO 27N60W...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 22N TO THE WEST OF 50W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT