000
AXNT20 KNHC 062320
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE FAR E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 6N20W 3N40W 7N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-30W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 7N-10N 
BETWEEN 56W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA 
NEAR 29N90W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM IF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1015 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA 
AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND 
FLORIDA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 84W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS 
TO LINGER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 77W WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N80W TO 
15N80W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N77W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN... PANAMA...AND 
COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-85W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER HONDURAS...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT CONTINUED 
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 29N79W TO 
23N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS 
AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A 1019 MB HIGH 
IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N69W. A 990 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE 
LOW ALONG 32N35W 23N40W 16N50W TO THE E CARIBBEAN AT 14N60W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 16N 
BETWEEN 30W-40W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF THE 
MADEIRA ISLANDS AT 30N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 37N40W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA