000
AXNT20 KNHC 042318
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE FAR E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N14W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W 9N54W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-40W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND 
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALL ALONG THE COASTS 
OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS EXTENDING 90 NM OVER THE GULF. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N 
BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF 
N OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N60W TO 15N71W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE SHEARLINE. 
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 80W-85W. 
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND 
BELIZE. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CUBA...JAMAICA... AND 
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SHEARLINE...AND 
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 
33N76W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC AT 31N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO 27N40W TO 
26N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-35N 
BETWEEN 35W-44W. FURTHER S... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM THE LOW TO 16N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE TROUGH. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N17W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE 
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO NEAR 29N43W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA