000 AXNT20 KNHC 020551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N40W AND 23N38W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER/TROUGH...TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 27N40W 32N47W AND 50W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31N42W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 25N43W AND 21N45W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 37W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 FEET IN THAT SAME AREA. 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 28N42W TO 20N35W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 43W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING IF IT IS NECESSARY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 6N23W TO 10N32W 8N41W...TOWARD A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 6N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 26W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N73W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... TO 24N90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 29N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... TO 25N93W...TO 16N97W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 22N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS... FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER THAT IS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...BEYOND 6N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET... TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 85W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N64W TO 28N68W TO 26N73W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 31N48W. A SHEAR LINE IS ALONG 26N54W 25N60W 25N67W 21N75W NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N68W 19N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 76W...INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND IN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N9W ALONG THE MOROCCO COAST...TO 18N19W AND 11N22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 31N TO 34W BETWEEN MOROCCO AND 12W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N22W AND 10N18W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM A 31N47W 25N60W 21N76W SHEAR LINE TO 30N... BETWEEN 47W AND 77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT