000
AXNT20 KNHC 281117
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
GUINEA AT 11N14W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N18W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W 8N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 6N58W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 35W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO 
JALAPA MEXICO AT 20N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS 
ARE NOTED. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT 
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 
10-15 KT S WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TO S FLORIDA 
AND DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICAN COAST HOWEVER.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 21N85W TO 
CENTRAL NICARAGUA AT 12N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND 
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ELSEWHERE OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE ...AND CONTINUES TO 
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 
13N72W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO JACKSONVILLE 
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE 
TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
32N41W TO 25N45W TO 20N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-47W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC 
WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN HIGH W OF 60W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W. 
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR 
THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA