000
AXNT20 KNHC 280521
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
GUINEA AT 11N14W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N18W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W 8N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 6N58W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N 
BETWEEN 20W-28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W TO 
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT 
OVER N FLORIDA. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A GOOD 
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT S WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TO S FLORIDA AND 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICAN COAST HOWEVER.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N86W TO 
CENTRAL NICARAGUA AT 13N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 81W-88W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND 
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ELSEWHERE OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE ...AND CONTINUES TO 
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 
13N72W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE TAIL END OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W TO 
25N45W TO 20N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
21N-27N BETWEEN 42W-48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC 
WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN HIGH W OF 60W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W. 
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT 
CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA