000 AXNT20 KNHC 272343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 8N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N40W 8N52W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 16W-28W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO MATAMOROS MEXICO AT 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT S WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL BE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICAN COAST HOWEVER. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N85W TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA AT 12N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 82W-87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE ...AND CONTINUES TO CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N71W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 25N45W TO 21N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 43W-52W. A 1011 MB LOW IS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N15W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN HIGH W OF 55W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 55W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA