000 AXNT20 KNHC 231134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA AND IT REACHES COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 5N15W 5N18W 3N30W 5N39W AND 6N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM COASTAL SURINAME NEAR 6N TO 11N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N9W 4N18W 5N20W 7N30W 8N35W 5N43W 7N51W...AND WITH THE 54W/55W TROUGH FROM 5N IN NORTHWESTERN SURINAME TO 9N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N73W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS/ WESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 26N66W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W AND 26N77W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PART OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 35N64W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 91W/92W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W TO 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N72W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 15N75W AND 10N77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N79W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 8N83W ALONG PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 9N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 71W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 24N28W AND 22N29W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 29N30W 25N37W...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N43W TO 21N43W AND 18N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N23W 29N28W 23N37W...AND FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG 19N29W 12N39W 10N44W...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N20W AND 23N30W 22N39W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEAS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W...AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 31N64W 20N72W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT