000 AXNT20 KNHC 201149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 7N19W 6N28W 5N33W...AND TO 5N52W IN THE FRENCH GUIANA COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 7W AND 35W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA...AND TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N74W...AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N73W AND 28N73W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N79W ALONG THE CUBA COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N79W...ACROSS CUBA...TO 23N87W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N66W 26N67W 23N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N93W 20N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 17N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 29N62W 25N66W...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 87W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W. A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO 25N97W... TO 19N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND FINALLY SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 99W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PARTLY RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE 32N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND PARTLY RELATED TO THE 99W RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N...PASSING THROUGH 74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 80W PANAMA...BEYOND 83W/84W SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 74W. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N TO THE WEST OF 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N40W... TO A 17N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N43W 7N49W 7N51W TO 6N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 12N TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 30N32W 29N40W AND 29N47W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W 28N30W 26N40W 25N42W...BEYOND 32N53W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N25W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEAS WITH THE 31N75W 29N81W COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 29N35W 31N49W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT