000 AXNT20 KNHC 190605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W TO 6N28W 7N34W 6N43W 8N48W 8N55W 9N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N78W...PASSING THROUGH 30N78W...PASSING ON TOP OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 23N87W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 75W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 29N BETWEEN 29N87W 24N81W AND 92W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 83W. A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO 29N92W 24N96W 19N95W...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL HONDURAS... THROUGH EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND ULTIMATELY TO CENTRAL COSTA RICA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PARTLY RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE 32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND PARTLY RELATED TO THE 100W RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 66W AND THE LINE 16N83W-BEYOND-22N80W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W...HISPANIOLA...AND THE MONA PASSAGE. MUCH OF THIS WIND REGIME SIMPLY IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N78W CYCLONIC CENTER. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA... TO 11N78W...SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER THAT IS NEAR 9N83W...AND BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 69W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 82W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 25N62W 20N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOWS UP SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA ALONG 16N32W 13N34W 10N34W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 31N77W 25N80W COLD FRONT...FOR THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W...AND FOR THE 30 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT