000
AXNT20 KNHC 162343
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W 
TO 7N20W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG 
8N30W 12N46W. IT CONTINUES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM 12N48W TO THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. THE SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 16N46W 12N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE 
EASTERN ATLC IS HELPING PRODUCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 
THE ITCZ AND TO THE NORTH OF IT. IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SECOND 
SURFACE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 19N34W TO 12N39W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 10W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 20W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 8N-11N 
BETWEEN 40W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N97W TO 
19N95W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF 93W 
FROM 18N-26N. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
ARE OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. SOME COLD AIR 
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO PANAMA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT 
OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 85W-88W. 
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E 
OF 80W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
W OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 
69W-77W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W 
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALSO N 
OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N61W 
TO 26N65W TO 21N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 58W-61W...AND FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 58W-65W. 
A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N37W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS NW OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N13W TO 29N26W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE 
CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS PRODUCING 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 
68W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N38W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE LOW IS 
HELPING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS FAR E 
AS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS NOTED IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC. THUS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA