000
AXNT20 KNHC 151747
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N30W TO 9N40W TO 
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
6N-16N BETWEEN 13W-22W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND FROM 
8N-14N BETWEEN 29W-34W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
FLORIDA AT 27N81W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W...MOSTLY 
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER 
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA N OF 27N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 96W DUE TO RETURN FLOW. 10-15 
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS 
OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. 
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AND THE SW GULF DUE TO RETURN SURFACE FLOW. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 75W-81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 10-15 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. 
10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N79W. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 
28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER 
E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 27N69W. A 1034 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 43N42W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS 
FROM 32N10W TO 27N14W TO 25N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
17N41W TO 11N45W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 36W-40W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 55W-59W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N39W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 32W-36W. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA