000 AXNT20 KNHC 141203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W 7N29W TO 6N40W AND 7N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W FROM SIERRA LEONE INTO GUINEA... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF 94W FROM TEXAS TO MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N68W AND 20N70W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO WESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N70W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO WESTERN HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS PART OF THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AS LATE AS THE 14/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N30W AND 23N35W...CONTINUING TO 13N35W AND 9N32W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 31N23W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W FROM 20N TO 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 10N TO 19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W A SEPARATE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W FROM 10N TO 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 28W AND 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS RELATED TO THE 31N66W 28N67W 20N70W SURFACE TROUGH...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT