000 AXNT20 KNHC 131205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL/GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N21W TO 7N34W 9N41W 8N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE U.S.A. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... 26N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N...AND CONTINUING TO 22N100W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N100W TO 27N104W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...INTO THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AREA...TO 27N87W TO 25N91W...BEYOND 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE 30N85W TO 24N95W TO 20N97W COLD FRONT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 215 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N44W TO 31N50W AND 30N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N57W TO 25N63W TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N69W 21N64W 27N64W 31N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 25W AND 65W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO 19N66W JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN AND 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N64W 14N64W 11N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM VENEZUELA TO 11N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 78W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W FROM 18N TO 28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. A SEPARATE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N36W 10N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 10N TO 16N. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE 31N55W 19N67W SURFACE TROUGH...AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 27N41W 18N41W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT