000 AXNT20 KNHC 121739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N20W TO 6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N24W TO 9N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 18W-28W...AND FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 28W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA AND E VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 58W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W TO 29N80W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FURTHER S OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 94W-98W. 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT SW WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS...AND THE S GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N64W TO 12N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN... PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-85W. MORE SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1039 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 42N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W TO 30N53W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N63W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 28N39W TO 20N37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 27W-37W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N48W TO 13N50W MOVING W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 14N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF BOTH TROUGHS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOVE THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOVE THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N38W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA