000 AXNT20 KNHC 120602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W AND 7N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N26W TO 10N38W 9N43W 10N53W...CURVING TO 10N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST/INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N97W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N79W... ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO 26N87W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE RETURN WIND FLOW... TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 88W...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N65W 27N68W...TO A 22N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N74W TO JAMAICA...INTO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 20N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W FROM 13N TO 19N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N76W IN COLOMBIA... TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 80W...CURVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 87W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EXCEPT THE LEE OF HAITI AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N65W 27N68W...TO A 22N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N74W TO JAMAICA...INTO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 31N52W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 31N52W TO 24N60W...TO 20N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ELSEWHERE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 26N58W 19N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N36W AND 11N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N36W 22N37W 19N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N46W 16N47W 14N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N79W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO 26N87W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE SURFACE SHEAR LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 26N36W 19N37W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT