000
AXNT20 KNHC 111120
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N18W TO 7N26W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
ALONG 9N33W 10N38W 9N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 
12N E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 
LINE FROM 5N12W TO 10N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-54W AND WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 4N21W TO 
14N25W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION 
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE GULF TO OVER THE CONUS E OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE FAR E 
GULF WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A 
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH 
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF. A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON MORNING 
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. 
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON 
NIGHT AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE 
MORNING THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW 
GULF WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER PANAMA 
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS 
ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 17N 
BETWEEN 80W-85W AND S OF 13N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 
69W. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND EXTENDS S 
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W TO 
28N53W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N60W TO OVER THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM 22N60W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N62W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 23N57W TO 20N58W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 18N59W TO 
12N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE 
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A CUT OFF 
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N38W WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 17N35W SUPPORTING 
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N42W TO 14N44W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO THE E OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 30W-37W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE 
AZORES. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATER 
TODAY BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH BY MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL 
THEN DRIFT W THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATING THU. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW