000 AXNT20 KNHC 100549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST GUINEA AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 7N21W 6N34W 8N45W TO 7N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N E OF 46W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 23W-33W BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS THEN N-NE TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS INTRODUCING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE E GULF WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE ALL BUT THE NE GULF WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO 24N95W THEN S TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TUE MORNING NE FLORIDA SW TO 24N94W BECOMING STATIONARY TO COATZACOALCOS WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-83W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND A SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM HAITI NEAR 19N72W ALONG 16N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 17N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N60W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N62W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 59W-62W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE E OF THE SHEAR AXIS EXCEPT SOME LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SHEAR AXIS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE NE TO E TRADE WINDS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE MON AND TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND EXTENDS S ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W CONTINUING ALONG 24N62W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT EXCEPT N OF 29N W OF 75W WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N40W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N37W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N35W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 19N38W TO 15N38W. THE SW SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPOSING THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF THE LOW. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT TO OVER NW AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N51W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SAT EVENING AND WEAKENING FURTHER FROM 32N48W TO 27N55W BY SUN EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON THROUGH WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM W TO E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW