000 AXNT20 KNHC 082342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 09N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N17W TO 07N29W TO 07N45W TO 05N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 17W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 32W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT WITHIN A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FURTHER SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR 36N88W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N96W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY PROVIDING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GULF. OVER THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND PROVIDE FOR STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N61W OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO 11N84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT N OF 15N AND A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 19N81W TO 16N85W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 08N83W TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE E OF 76W. HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 63W-75W AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR 43N70W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BROAD TROUGHING OVER SW NORTH ATLC N OF 21N W OF 60W. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W-70W WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N38W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RESULTS IN A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N34W TO 22N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 25W-38W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN