000 AXNT20 KNHC 081723 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N20W TO 6N30W TO 7N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 10W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXITED THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS NOW OVER W CUBA. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER N MISSISSIPPI NEAR 34N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN RESIDUAL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 89W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TO CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE E GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ENDING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER SE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N77W TO NE HONDURAS AT 16N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF N HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO PANAMA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NE VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 60W-63W. 15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W ...WHILE 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N63W. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N75W TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N63W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N74W TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 59W-66W...AND FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 66W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 26N49W TO 20N50W DEPICTING A SURFACE WINDSHIFT. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC AT 38N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 25N-34N BETWEEN 45W-53W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 27W-35W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA