000
AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 
12N16W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 5N26W 6N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 5N22W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...AND FROM 
7N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO AND INCLUDING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SUPPORTS 
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO FLORIDA NEAR 
28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH 
OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 67W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE 
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 23N80W TO 27N74W TO 32N72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO A 1019 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. 

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA...SPINNING AWAY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER 
THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 76W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE-TO-LOW 
LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N79W 
BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N76W TO 12N81W. 

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 20N TO 27N. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W TO 28N50W AND 24N51W.
 
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W
TO 26N41W TO 23N40W TO 16N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N 
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 19N35W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N18W TO
27N20W AND 20N22W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY 
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE 
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FOR THE 
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 
42W...AND THEN WITH A 31N76W 28N81W COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT