000 AXNT20 KNHC 061150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N20W AND 9N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N26W 9N38W AND 9N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 45W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM EASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO...HAS MOVED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...CURVING TO 28N86W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N88W JUST OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 29N88W AND 28N96W... TO A SOUTH TEXAS 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 92W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N80W 24N90W BEYOND 21N98W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 89W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N86W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N88W AND 28N97W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 73W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 19N73W OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 7N81W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...BEYOND 7N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12 TO THE WEST OF 76W...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA... CURVING TO 28N86W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 75 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N74W 32N69W. A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 23N66W 28N64W BEYOND 32N63W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N39W TO 33N45W AND 29N47W TO 28N65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N23W 22N25W 19N27W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...TO THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS... TO 27N20W AND CURVING TO 25N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W IS RELATED TO REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO ARE ALONG 17N18W 11N20W 8N21W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 40W WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N75W 26N80W IN 24 HOURS...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 77W AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT