000
AXNT20 KNHC 051719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 11N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO 7N30W TO 7N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-52W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE 
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AT 27N88W TO HOUSTON TEXAS WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ONLY 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
N OF THE FRONT. THE AREA N OF THE FRONT...THE NW GULF...AND TEXAS
HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW 
GULF S OF 24N W OF 94W...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS...WITH A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM 
OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1010 MB LOW 
TO BE OVER N FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE RAIN AND 
SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 83W-88W DUE TO 
SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OVER E PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO 
PANAMA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. 15-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N NICARAGUA NEAR 13N82W. CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO JACKSONVILLE 
FLORIDA. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 
27N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1012 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N16W TO 30N21W TO 
ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW AT 28N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 
27N-33N BETWEEN 12W-26W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 11N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 31N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS 
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-32N 
BETWEEN 48W-54W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED 
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONTS. ALSO EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS N OF 
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA