000 AXNT20 KNHC 041706 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N32W TO 10N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18N-27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-56W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W ALONG 11N20W TO 11N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N34W TO 10N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 9W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 16W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S LOUISIANA AND S MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS OVER THE W GULF N OF 20N W OF 93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF... AND THE NE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO E TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO PANAMA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N BETWEEN 62W-70W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W ESPECIALLY OVER TRINIDAD. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N NICARAGUA 14N85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 27N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL N OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N25W TO 22N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 21W-28W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 9N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 50W-58W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 31N26W ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA