000 AXNT20 KNHC 041136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W ALONG 11N20W TO 11N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N34W TO 10N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 9W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 16W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF TO LOUISIANA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-29N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF EARLY TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE JUST N OF THE AREA LATE WED THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N84W INLAND ACROSS HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 80W-87W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW OVER COSTA RICA CONTINUING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 76W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. A STRONG GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY ON WED THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT STALLS FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WED AND THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 30N W OF 50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 29N72W WHERE IT DISSIPATES NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N52W ALONG 24N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 16N52W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N TO BEYOND 32N46W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N29W TO 14N27W AND SUPPORTING A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N25W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N29W TO 22N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER AFRICA IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N24W TO BEYOND 32N18W. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NE INTO TO THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT IN NE OF THE AREA BY TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 32N72W TO W CUBA WED MORNING AND FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA THU MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW