000
AXNT20 KNHC 032338
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
09N20W AND THEN BECOMES THE ITCZ EXTENDING THROUGH 07N30W TO 
12N38W TO 10N50W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 09N61W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W...WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
13N37W TO 11N40W LINE...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE ENTIRE GULF THIS EVENING 
WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW IN THE AREA FROM 23N TO 26N AND SPEEDS 
IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER 
IS POSITIONED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W AND HAS MOVED 
LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS COAST EXCEPT THE FAR 
SOUTHERN PART. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS AIDING 
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS S OF 17N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 81W/82W S 
OF 15N INTO PANAMA. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED 
FROM 12N TO 14N W OF 79W INTO NICARAGUA. MODERATE WESTERLIES 
ALOFT ARE LOCATED N OF ABOUT 17N W OF 72W WITH THE HIGHEST 
SPEEDS...TO 60 KNOTS...OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF 
THE BASIN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE WESTERLIES ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
CARIBBEAN SEA SECTIONS CONTINUE INTO THE ATLANTIC N OF ABOUT 18N 
W OF 55W. WINDS HERE ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SATELLITE CLOUD 
DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE. AT THE 
SURFACE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N57W TO 
25N68W. A TROUGH IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 30N50W TO 
22N67W. 

IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS LOCATED N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W.

MOVING DOWNSTREAM TO THE E ATLANTIC A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N31W TO 15N33W WITH 
CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 15N E OF 35W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH RUNS FROM 18N30W TO 
25N24W TO BEYOND 32N18W. AT THE SURFACE A 1005 MB DEVELOPING 
GALE IS LOCATED AT 33N26W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH TO 24N34W. A 
1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N31W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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CAB