000
AXNT20 KNHC 031110
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT NOV 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 4N32W TO 10N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18N-27W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-56W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N93W TO INLAND OVER 
TEXAS S OF GALVESTON. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER ZONAL 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE 
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM CUBA TO 24N BETWEEN 81W-84W. THE 
COMBINATION OF E SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SE GULF COUPLED WITH THE 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SAME SE TRADE WIND FLOW IS USHERING 
IN SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
DOTING THE W GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N94W TO THE COAST 
OF TEXAS NEAR 28N97W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE GULF N OF 
24N LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT NE INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH 
SUN AND THEN REORGANIZE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SUN NIGHT. THIS 
WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE 
E GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N80W TO 11N81W GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 9N79W CROSSING COSTA RICA INTO THE E 
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N85W GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO OVER PANAMA 
BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. 
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER 
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY W THROUGH SUN. A STRONG GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 26N BETWEEN 62W-80W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W CONTINUING ALONG 27N67W TO 25N74W 
WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL 
ATLC ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 18N52W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE 
AXIS N TO BEYOND 32N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE W 
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N55W 24N64W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N71W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N 
BETWEEN 65W-73W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE...AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N66W TO 2953W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 
32N28W TO 17N33W AND SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 32N28W WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N34W TO 26N42W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 24W-27W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER AFRICA 
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N33W ALONG 22N23W 
TO 29N19W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE 
THROUGH SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO 
INTO THE NW ATLC MON AND TUE ALLOWING FOR YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW