000
AXNT20 KNHC 022331
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AT 09N13W TO 
06N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N50W TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST 
AT 08N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE 
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER 
THE NW GULF. STRONG WESTERLIES COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
GULF WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 80 
KNOTS. DRY AIR IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...MOVING S. WIDELY SCATTERED 
NORTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W OF 94W. A NEARLY 
STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS POSITIONED OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26.5N89W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED N OF ABOUT 
15N W OF 70W WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
AND MEASURING 70 KNOTS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED 
S OF 15N W OF 72W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. DRY AIR IS LOCATED OVER 
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED 
ALONG 80W S OF 14N INTO PANAMA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION LOCATED S OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED FEATURES ALOFT OVER 
THE AREA N OF 15N. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF 
THE UNITED STATES E COAST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W 
TO THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED FROM THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 20N76W TO 25N67W TO 32N55W WHERE IT 
TURNS SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WINDS WITHIN THE JET ARE IN THE 
80 TO 90 KNOT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM 
JUST W OF BERMUDA TO 25N80W. 

MOVING DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 52W/53W N OF 15N. THE RIDGE IS 
MOVING E 10 TO 15 KNOTS. VERY DRY AIR LIES JUST S OF THE RIDGE 
FROM THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD TO 48W. AT THE 
SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 30N57W TO 25N62W TO 22N70W.

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE 
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N29W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY E. A TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS SSW FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N38W. AT THE 
SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 999 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 31N32W TO 
18N39W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS EXTEND FROM THE COAST 
OF AFRICA WEST TO A 32N20W TO 20N28W LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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CAB