000
AXNT20 KNHC 021750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1615 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

SHORT MONSOON TROUGH EXTEND FROM COAST OF AFRICA AT 08N13W TO 
05N19W AND RUNS FROM 10N40W TO NORTHEAST SURINAME AT 06N55W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 
ITCZ.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS DOT REGION BETWEEN MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N84W INTO THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING 87W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 28N91W.
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
NEAR 24N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 78W S OF 17N PROPERLY LOCATED UNDER UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO BLOOM.  TROUGH REMAINS ALMOST 
STATIONARY AND MOIST AIR MASS LEFT OVER BY PREVIOUS SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER CUBA REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF 
FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION.

MID ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTEND INTO EASTERN HALF OF CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENT FLOW TO TROUGH IN PARAGRAPH ABOVE.  ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS DOT EASTERN HALF OF BASIN.  GULF OF HONDURAS 
HAS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST S OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE TIP 
OF SOUTH FLORIDA THEN LAYS EAST TO WEST ACROSS STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO 25N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  FRESH TO STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF FRONT TURN TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WEST OF BOUNDARY.  REFER TO MIAHSFAT2 
FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARINE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING 
AS FRONT LOSES ITS IDENTITY AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER GULF 
OF MEXICO DRIFTS EAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.  WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE AT 29N54W DISSIPATING AS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 30N58W TO 20N70W ADVANCES EASTWARD WELL AHEAD OF COLD 
FRONT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MAINTAINS 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 65W.  

DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH 998 MB AT 32N32W SUPPORTS 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N34W TO 17N43W.  STATIONARY 
FRONT MEANDERS EAST FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO WESTERN COAST OF 
MOROCCO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING 
AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES