000 AXNT20 KNHC 011149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH AND NO ITCZ EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 9N TO 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N29W 11N35W 5N44W 6N47W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AND WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION WITH TIME...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH SURROUNDS THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF SANDY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH GEORGIA SIX HOURS AGO...AND NOW IT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 77W/78W TO THE NORTH OF 30N. A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH 29N87W TO 21N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W...AND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA... BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N89W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA... BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH HAITI BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IS FILLED WITH PURELY MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED WITH SOUTHERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA AT THIS MOMENT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY AT THE MOMENT. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 28N76W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA... TO 28N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N62W TO 25N66W...TO SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W...AND FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N...PASSING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N34W TO 14N39W. A 997 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 30N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N35W 19N40W AND 18N50W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N29W 15N34W 9N40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 66W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 31N35W...MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT