000 AXNT20 KNHC 311142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES NEAR 8N30W TO 7N40W AND 4N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 12N23W TO 10N26W AND 9N28W. THIS TROUGH BREAKS UP THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W... AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 9N TO 15N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH SURROUNDS THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO SANDY. THE TROUGH HAS MOVED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING BEHIND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA... BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 23N70W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA... BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH HAITI BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IS FILLED WITH PURELY MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED WITH SOUTHERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N63W BEYOND 10N66W IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N74W 10N75W...BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA.SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N73W 13N76W 8.5N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO WESTERN JAMAICA. THE IS STATIONARY FROM JAMAICA TO 17N82W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N35W AND 18N34W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 27N20W 22N30W AND 20N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 25W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 67W. ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 47W TO THE BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 47W 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT