000 AXNT20 KNHC 310551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL JUST TO THE NORTH OF GAMBIA...TO 13N20W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ STARTS AT 10N41W AND IT CONTINUES TO 8N50W AND NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 6N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W AND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 10N TO 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N58W 13N59W. 16N43W 12N46W 7N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...SURROUNDING THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO SANDY. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA... BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 25N70W...TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA... BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N64W TO 15N67W TO 10N69W AND THE BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THAT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 13N63W 18N61W 13N62W AND 7N64W IN SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 6N75W TO 10N74W AND 14N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N70W...TO 14N71W AND 11N71W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N81W... BEYOND 8N60W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 8N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 25N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN JAMAICA... TO 17N81W. THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO CUBA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 22N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N35W AND 18N34W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 27N20W 22N30W AND 20N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 21N15W...TO A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N21W...TO 13N33W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 24N35W 31N45W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 15N61W TO 20N35W...20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT