000 AXNT20 KNHC 272357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 75.7W AT 28/0000 UTC ABOUT 287 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...OR ABOUT 308 NM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE STORM CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO SPREAD WESTWARD TO 83W IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS FROM N FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA. AN OUTER BAND WELL TO THE EAST IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 59W-65W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N41W TO 9N42W STAYING MAINLY QUASI-STATIONARY. THE WAVE STILL ALIGNS WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE...THE WAVE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 39W-42W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 13N17W TO 9N20W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 8N23W AND CONTINUES TO 8N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W TO 23N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-26N W OF 95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA E OF 84W DUE TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF HURRICANE SANDY...WHILE THE SE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD 10-20 KT CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SANDY. WINDS ARE STRONGEST S OF CUBA. THE TRADEWINDS ARE THUS COMPLETELY DISRUPTED. AN OUTER RAINBAND IS ALSO IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SEE ABOVE. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS HOWEVER IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...FOR PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND FOR BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N35W TO 26N40W TO 26N48W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 28N57W. A WARM FROM CONTINUES TO N OF SANDY AT 33N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 23W-28W. A 1015 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 22N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA