000 AXNT20 KNHC 270005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 77.1W AT 26/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...OR ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WELL E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 65W-72W. ONE OF THE OUTER BANDS ALSO EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 22N65W TO 14N76W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING SUSTAINED RAINFALL OVER SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W TO 10N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO INDICATES THAT CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 11N49W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT THE WAVE TO THE EAST IS WITHIN. A 1536 UTC OSCAT PASS CONFIRMED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W 12N41W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVES FROM 7N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 23W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA E OF 83W...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DUE TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF HURRICANE SANDY. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF AND S TEXAS...AND OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH SHOWERS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL TERMINATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE SANDY IS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STILL BEING DOMINATED BY HURRICANE SANDY WITH BROAD 20-30 KT CYCLONIC FLOW. AN OUTER RAINBAND IS ALSO IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO INCREASE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. S OF 31N...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE...AS WELL AS OVER THE GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N45W TO 30N50W TO 30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 33W-53W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 24N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA