000 AXNT20 KNHC 261159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 76.9W AT 26/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 13 NM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 417 NM S-SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 69W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 21N66W TO 27N71W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N42W TO 10N41W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 14.5N42.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 38W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 10N48W MOVING W 5-10 KT. A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THE LOW IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 15N46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W 5N24W TO 5N31W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N43W 11N58W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 33W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 19W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FLORIDA THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA INTO THE E GULF ALONG 25N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING W OVER THE SE GULF COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N E OF 85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF SHORTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LARGE FIELD OF STRONG N TO NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF TO 90W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT THROUGH SUN AS SANDY MOVES N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY REACHING FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS SAT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO N YUCATAN PENINSULA MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANT RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE DRY AIR THAT COVERS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THEN N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TOWARD HURRICANE SANDY. A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-76W AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 72W-82W. HURRICANE SANDY OVER N BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. STRONG SW WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN THEN STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING ALONG THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 24N59W THEN NW TO OVER NORTH CAROLINA GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N W OF 63W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 59W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N50W ALONG 31N58W TO 32N67W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N24W. HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NW AND N THROUGH TODAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NE FRI NIGHT CONTINUING OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW