000 AXNT20 KNHC 260559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 76.5W AT 26/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 48 NM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 126 NM E-SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N40W TO 9N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 14.5N42.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 13N-16N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N46W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N47W TO 8N47W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 14N-15N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W TO 6N35W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 8N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 32W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 8N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W...AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 35W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FLORIDA TONIGHT IS HURRICANE SANDY BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA INTO THE E GULF ALONG 26N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE E GULF COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 28N E OF 85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HURRICANE SANDY HAS A LARGE FIELD OF STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS GULF E OF 90W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS THE GULF CLEARING THE BASIN ON SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT ARE THE RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. THE DRY AIR THAT HAS COVERED THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THEN N TOWARD HURRICANE SANDY. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN BETWEEN 18N-20N AND OVER CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA W OF 79W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-21N W OF 79W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-75W AND FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 72W-84W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 65W AND DIMINISH EARLY SAT AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES FURTHER N. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE MON AND STALL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 26N62W THEN NW TO OVER NORTH CAROLINA GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 32N W OF 65W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 59W-65W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 6N50W COVERING THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 45W-55W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N25W. HURRICANE SANDY WILL TRACK N-NW THROUGH TODAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE N-NE CONTINUING THROUGH SUN OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW