000 AXNT20 KNHC 251801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 25/1800 UTC IS NEAR 23.5N 75.4W. SANDY IS ABOUT 22 NM/40 KM TO THE EAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 110 NM/200 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 71W IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N81W 15N77W...ACROSS HAITI TO 20N72W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 80W AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF CUBA TO THE EAST OF 84W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 27N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 87W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN A CLOSED 1008 MB ISOBAR. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TONY AT 25/1500 UTC IS NEAR 31.0N 36.3W. TONY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N38W 15N38W 11N37W. IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N32W 10N35N 15N37W 20N38W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE AREA...BEING TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND BEING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N28W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W FROM 6N TO 16N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL ALONG 20N45W 13N48W 7N50W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W TO 8N20W 7N30W 6N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N82W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS THROUGH MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...TO 26N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N98W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 85W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA IN 48 HOURS ALONG 30N86W 25N95W 21N97W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE SANDY...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOT AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WINDS 20 TO 33 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 12 FEET... AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM TONY IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NEARLY COMPLETE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND MUCH COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SURFACE TROUGH/LINE OF SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ALONG 27N38W 22N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N47W...TO BERMUDA...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 45W THROUGH 32N TO 22N. A SECOND TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY SEPARATE FROM THE FIRST ONE... IS ALONG 20N45W 13N48W 7N50W. THIS TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 44W/45W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N48W TO 8N47W TO 6N54W 9N58W 10N53W TO 16N48W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N27W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY AND TROPICAL STORM TONY. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELL...LASTING FOR 12 HOURS OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT