000 AXNT20 KNHC 251203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 75.5W AT 25/1200 UTC OR 113 NM S OF THE GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 65 NM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA MOVING N AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 72W-77W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N75W OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 20N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 75W-83W. HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E CUBA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SE AND E CENTRAL FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 38.4W AT 25/0900 OR ABOUT 725 NM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 35W-40W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 24N42W TO 30N36W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N39W TO 10N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 34W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N44W TO 8N45W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 42W-46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 11N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N27W TO 12N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 26W-34W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 48W-54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W AND FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY BRINGING RAIN TO S FLORIDA...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS COVERED THE GULF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM N GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 26N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 28N E OF 83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CALM THIS MORNING. HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TODAY BRINGING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY. RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT WITH THE WINDS EXPANDING INTO E HALF OF GULF THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SANDY. HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE N COAST CUBA THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BERMUDA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA W OF 65W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N53W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W S-SE TO 24N43W THEN S-SW ALONG 15N48W INTO THE TROPICS TO 2N50W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N42W TO 22N49W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N28W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N23W TO 23N33W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N28W. HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW