000 AXNT20 KNHC 241205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 76.9W AT 24/1200 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 105 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 NM S-SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N82W TO 13N76W...FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 71W-77W...AND FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-71W. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 47.9W AT 24/0900 OR ABOUT 1230 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N49W TO 31N43W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N34W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N42W TO 8N41W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. A SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CO-LOCATED WITH THIS WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 12N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS TO THE S NEAR 7N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N29W S OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE TO 9N39W WHICH IS E OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 16W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO 92W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE SE CONUS ALONG 85W ACROSS W CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF AT 24/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 23N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE E GULF THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS W CUBA/ YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND OVER HONDURAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM SANDY. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES CUBA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU WHERE IT WILL LOSE STRENGTH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM TONY IS A CONCERN THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BERMUDA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA BETWEEN 67W-79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 58W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 180 NM OFF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 32N W OF 50W THEN NARROWS AS IT DIPS S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N53W ALONG 20N49W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 2N45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS TO THE E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N32W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 14N34W TO 23N43W AND IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THU WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW ATLC AS TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES N AND INTENSIFIES TO HURRICANE TODAY. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA TONIGHT/EARLY THU AND EMERGE OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA AS TROPICAL STORM EARLY THU CROSSING THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI/EARLY SAT BEFORE MOVING MORE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW