000 AXNT20 KNHC 210605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A CARIBBEAN SEA 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N74W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N76W...THROUGH THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BETWEEN 65W AND 82W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N46W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N47W...THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 12N44W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 14N TO 21N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER OF GAMBIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 12N20W 11N32W AND 9N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N39W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W AND FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N17W 13N32W 10N50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N77W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N80W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 23N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W 27N76W 25N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N66W 27N69W 24N73W AND ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W...PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 24N84W 22N88W 23N91W 24N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N87W...TO EASTERN HONDURAS...TO 12N82W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC IS 1.25 INCHES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 23N94W...BEYOND 19N98W IN MEXICO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT OF THE WIND EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...TURNING TO NORTHEASTERLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NICARAGUA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 66W AND 80W...MOVING AROUND A 17N72W UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 20N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND A RELATED TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 15N74W... AT 24 HOURS IT MOVES TO 1005 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 15N77W...AT 48 HOURS IT MOVES TO 1004 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 14N79W...20 TO 30 WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AROUND THE FEATURE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N41W AND 25N49W...TO A 20N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N55W... TO THE BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 55W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N10W TO 29N21W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N40W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 43N51W TO 33N54W 28N62W AND 25N75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 22N47W 17N46W 12N44W TROPICAL WAVE WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N46W ALONG THE WAVE...FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SECOND FEATURE IS A 31N45W 28N35W COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS...AND AT 48 HOURS COLD FRONT 23N48W 21N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT