000 AXNT20 KNHC 171805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL AT 17/1500 UTC IS NEAR 37.5N 59.1W...ABOUT 475 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. RAFAEL IS UNDERGOING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 24N60W 22N63W 21N67W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FROM LINES OF CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW AS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE HURRICANE. THE SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA...EASTERN CANADA...AND PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N36W 14N38W 11N38W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE MOST CURRENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW NEARLY 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. THIS PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS NOT RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 10N TO 16N. THIS FEATURE IS ABLE TO BE FOLLOWED CURRENTLY IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE BEING SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W AND 9N34W. THE ITCZ IS NON-EXISTENT TO THE WEST OF 9N34W BECAUSE OF THE TRADEWIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 7N20W 13N28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS STEERING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 28N80W...AND WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 28N80W TO 24N86W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... BEYOND 26N97W ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUDS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N85W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE PART OF THE FRONT THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS THE PART THAT IS STEERING THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT JUST TO THE WEST OF HURRICANE RAFAEL. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N40W 19N47W 5N52W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TRANSITIONS TO EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY...FROM EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N...BETWEEN 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 40W...FROM 20N TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 49W AND 64W...AND FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 51W...ELSEWHERE BETWEEN LINE FROM 31N51W TO 24N59W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 31N73W TO 24N66W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL...HIGHEST NE. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT