000 AXNT20 KNHC 171057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 35.2N 60.7W AT 17/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 270 NM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 29 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 36N63W TO 37N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM NE OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N63W ALONG 25N58W TO 33N56W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 39W/40W BETWEEN 11N-18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT BASED ON PREVIOUS ANALYSIS...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N25W TO 11N30W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 12N34W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N39W 9N46W 10N59W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 12N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 10W-18W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-29W...AND FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF AT 17/0900 UTC FROM NEAR 25N84W ALONG 27N90W TO INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA E OF LAKE CHARLES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO THE GULF NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR 28N92W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N91W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N92W TO OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR MEXICO CITY ALONG 20N ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W TO 24N86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-87W TO INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER E VIRGINIA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FRI MORNING THEN DISSIPATE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO 83W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N85W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N BETWEEN 83W-87W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 13N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N E OF 68W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 10N80W INTO THE THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 12N-15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER N-NE. RESULTANT SWELLS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA PASSAGES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND THEN FADE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE RAFAEL N-NE OF BERMUDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR NE CONUS/CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N73W NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N74W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W ALONG 26N56W TO BEYOND 32N53W AND E OF THE HURRICANE RAFAEL. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W ALONG 27N36W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N44W INTO THE TROPICS TO THE BASE NEAR 5N52W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS FRI AND EXTEND FROM 32N73W TO WEST PALM BEACH BY SAT AND FROM 32N70W TO WEST PALM BEACH BY SUN. 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